Transition Period in Practice: Startup-to-BM Conversion, PR Ban, and Post-Reform Statistics

As of March 2026, although the new BM visa requirements formally extend to renewals, immigration in practice has not yet been enforcing them in full ("nobody applies under them, and it goes through anyway"). Lawyers nonetheless warn against relying on this loophole for long, expecting tightening to arrive closer to 2028. Lawyers also expect that, after the first year, renewals will most likely be granted for a maximum of 1 year at a time — even where a "3-year" visa is nominally available — so that compliance with the new rules can be checked in time for 16 October 2028; this is a view expressed in chat, not an official position. When converting from a startup visa (特定活動 No. 44) to BM, the determining factor is the issue date of the confirmation certificate from the municipality: if the certificate was issued before the reform date (16 October 2025), the old BM criteria apply; if after, the new criteria apply. Initially, startup visas were mistakenly excluded from the three-year grace period running to 2028 — participants report this bug was later fixed. Since 16 October 2025, BM visa holders are officially barred from applying for permanent residency (永住, PR) until the new reform conditions are met — even those who for years met the old PR eligibility criteria (10+ years of residence, a visa of 3+ years' duration). This is confirmed by several chat participants citing the source law. It is likewise not possible, without meeting the new criteria, to switch status from BM to "Highly Skilled Professional Type 1 Category 8" (the track that covers BM-equivalent activity within the HSP framework). According to figures discussed in chat (citing Reddit and news coverage), BM visa applications fell by 96% after the rules were tightened. At the same time, roughly 96% of existing BM businesses do not have 30 million yen in capital — meaning the vast majority of current companies would fail the new requirements if they are ever applied in full to renewals. Possible case-by-case leniency for businesses that existed before the reform, even after the three-year transition period ends, has been discussed but is not confirmed. Official statistics as of the end of 2024 counted about 41,600 BM visa holders nationwide, of whom roughly 21,700 (over half) were Chinese nationals — double the 2015 figure. The formally cited reason for tightening the rules is abuse of the status, including operating Airbnb rental properties through "paper" companies with no real business activity. Sources: https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/applications/resources/10_00237.html — official MOJ page on how BM criteria apply depending on certificate date; https://japantoday.com/category/features/kuchikomi/empty-%27chinese-ghost-buildings%27-exploit-japan%27s-lax-business-visa-requirements — article on abuse of the business visa via sham companies for managing Airbnb rentals.